Stocks Slide Stocks were under pressure much of the week due to resurgent recession fears and concerns that Fed rate hikes may go higher for longer than current expectations. There was some good news last week on the economic front and out of China, which started to loosen COVID restrictions. But it was a week where good news was considered bad news, as any signs of economic resilience stoked worries of a longer rate-hike cycle. Higher continuing jobless claims signaled economic softness, triggering a Thursday rally. But stock prices were under pressure Friday following a disappointing Producer Price Index (PPI) number. |
Market Update1 |
ObservationsU.S. equities were negative across the board, the tech-heavy NASDAQ lagged the most, down -3.98% WTD. Mid-cap stocks and small-cap stocks also sold off, returning -3.87% and -5.06%, respectively. Emerging markets and international stocks fared much better than domestic equities, with the MSCI EAFE and MSCI EM Indexes returning -0.20% and +0.48%, respectively. Bonds were negative domestically, globally, and in the credit space, the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond index fell - 0.44%. |
Credit Usage: Consumer credit figures for October were released yesterday, and the increase was not a surprise. Total credit usage rose by roughly $27 billion, supported mainly by auto sales and credit card usage. Credit card usage pushed revolving credit balances up by $10 billion from September and new student loans and auto purchases drove up non-revolving credit by $17 billion. Are these increases cause for concern? The answer is found in the household debt service ratio (DSR) which is the ratio of debt payments to disposable income. According to the latest figures, the total household debt service ratio is approaching 10%, still 3 percentage points below the rate preceding the Great Financial Crisis.2 No More “Zero COVID Policy”: The Chinese government on Wednesday unveiled a broad easing of its strict “zero Covid” policy, after an extraordinary outburst of discontent in mass street protests a week ago. The changes do not dismantle the policy, but they represent a loosening of measures that have dragged down the economy by disrupting daily life for hundreds of millions of people, forcing many small businesses to close and sending youth unemployment to a record high.3 Inverted Yield Curve: The yield curve continues to fall deeper into inverted territory, with the 3-Month Treasury bill yield now 0.83% higher than the 10-Year Treasury bond. The last 60 years, the only periods with equal or greater inversion:4
1 Data obtained from Bloomberg as of 12/9/2022 2 https://lplresearch.com/2022/12/08/credit-usage-rising-but-no-red-flags-yet/ 3 https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/07/world/asia/china-zero-covid-changes.html 4 https://compoundadvisors.com/2022/the-week-in-charts-12-4-2 |
Economic Definitions Federal Reserve (Fed): The Federal Reserve System is the central banking system of the United States of America. ISM Services Index: PMI Surveys track sentiment among purchasing managers at manufacturing, construction and/or services firms. An overall sentiment index is generally calculated from the results of queries on production, orders, inventories, employment, prices, etc. Initial Jobless Claims: Initial unemployment claims track the number of people who have filed jobless claims for the first time during the specified period with the appropriate government labor office. This number represents an inflow of people receiving unemployment benefits. Producer Prices - PPI (headline and core): Producer prices (output) are a measure of the change in the price of goods as they leave their place of production (i.e. prices received by domestic producers for their outputs either on the domestic or foreign market). CPI (headline and core): Consumer prices (CPI) are a measure of prices paid by consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. The yearly (or monthly) growth rates represent the inflation rate. Retail Sales: Retail sales (also referred to as retail trade) tracks the resale of new and used goods to the general public, for personal or household consumption. This concept is based on the value of goods sold. NFIB Small Business Optimism: The NFIB Research Foundation has collected Small Business Economic Trends data with quarterly surveys since the 4th quarter of 1973 and monthly surveys since 1986. Survey respondents are drawn from NFIB’s membership. The report is released on the second Tuesday of each month. Index Definitions S&P 500: The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization. NASDAQ: The NASDAQ Composite Index is a broad-based capitalization-weighted index of stocks in all three NASDAQ tiers: Global Select, Global Market and Capital Market. The index was developed with a base level of 100 as of February 5, 1971. Dow Jones Industrial Average: The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 blue-chip stocks that are generally the leaders in their industry. It has been a widely followed indicator of the stock market since October 1, 1928. Russell Mid-Cap: Russell Midcap Index measures the performance of the 800 smallest companies in the Russell 1000 Index, which represent approximately 25% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 1000 Index. Russell 2000: The Russell 2000 Index is comprised of the smallest 2000 companies in the Russell 3000 Index, representing approximately 8% of the Russell 3000 total market capitalization. The real-time value is calculated with a base value of 135.00 as of December 31, 1986. The end-of-day value is calculated with a base value of 100.00 as of December 29, 1978. MSCI EAFE: The MSCI EAFE Index is a free-float weighted equity index. The index was developed with a base value of 100 as of December 31, 1969. The MSCI EAFE region covers DM countries in Europe, Australasia, Israel, and the Far East. MSCI EM: The MSCI EM (Emerging Markets) Index is a free-float weighted equity index that captures large and mid-cap representation across Emerging Markets (EM) countries. The index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country. Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Agg Bond: The Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, U.S. dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. The index includes Treasuries, government-related and corporate securities, MBS (agency fixed-rate pass-throughs), ABS and CMBS (agency and non-agency). Bloomberg Barclays High Yield Corp: The Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Corporate High Yield Bond Index measures the USD-denominated, high yield, fixed-rate corporate bond market. Securities are classified as high yield if the middle rating of Moody's, Fitch and S&P is Ba1/BB+/BB+ or below. Bonds from issuers with an emerging markets country of risk, based on Barclays EM country definition, are excluded. Bloomberg Barclays Global Agg: The Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Index is a flagship measure of global investment grade debt from twenty-four local currency markets. This multi-currency benchmark includes treasury, government-related, corporate and securitized fixed-rate bonds from both developed and emerging markets issuers. Bloomberg Barclays Municipal Bond Index: The Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Municipal Index covers the USD-denominated long-term tax-exempt bond market. The index has four main sectors: state and local general obligation bonds, revenue bonds, insured bonds and prerefunded bonds. Disclosures The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. A portion of this material was developed and produced by FMG Suite to provide information on a topic that may be of interest. FMG Suite, LLC, is not affiliated with the named representative, broker-dealer, state- or SEC-registered investment advisory firm. 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12/9 Market View Weekly: By the Numbers
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December 15, 2022